Q-Day estimates in 2026: what changed and what didn’t – Free Webinar
A free one-hour webinar from Quantum Academy and Applied Quantum on the 2026 estimates for breaking RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography, and what they mean for a migration plan.
Published estimates for breaking RSA-2048 fell from about 20 million physical qubits in 2019 to under one million in 2025. In February 2026, an Iceberg Quantum simulation put the figure under 100,000. In March, Google put 256-bit elliptic curves under 500,000 physical qubits and set 2029 as its own migration deadline.
In October, Google demonstrated magic-state cultivation on its Willow processor, a technique the 2025 RSA estimate relies on. Quantinuum showed logical errors falling as its color codes grow on Helios. Neither result lowers the estimates. Willow has 105 physical qubits, and Helios has 98.
For CISOs, security architects and risk leaders who need to explain the 2026 numbers to a board or a budget committee.
What we cover
- How the qubit estimates for RSA-2048 and 256-bit elliptic curves fell between 2019 and 2026, and which assumptions changed each time
- What Google and Quantinuum demonstrated in October, and what they announced
- Why physical and logical qubit counts are not comparable, and how to read a claim of either
- What the new estimates change in a migration plan, and what they leave unchanged
The format
60 minutes, live online from 15:00 to 16:00 UTC: about 45 minutes of teaching, then 15 minutes for your questions. Registration is free, and everyone who registers receives the recording.
The full course on quantum risk for security leaders is Quantum Risk for CISOs. Dates and booking are on the course page.
This webinar is educational and informational, and is not legal, compliance, or engineering advice.
